I Alt-Picked Weapons… Oops | Week 31, 2025
A week of (almost) non-stop good news in this game. No… really.
WB/New Line’s Weapons is the breakout of the summer. The reviews are outstanding, it’s being hyped as a “you must see this in a theater with a big crowd” experience, and it’s already at $91,998,630 globally on a $38 million budget. Weapons will be profitable by Friday, and this is just going to be the gift that keeps on gifting for anyone who drafted it. Well, I drafted it in one of my leagues… but as an Alt Pick.
This one was quite a dark horse. By the time you drafted summer picks, there hadn’t even been a trailer or any marketing. There had been buzz around this, including a huge bidding war for the script and the rumor that Jordan Peele fired his agents when his production company couldn’t win the rights. Anyone who went with their gut will be handsomely rewarded. $150 million in profits feels like the floor at this point, but if there is a Sinners word-of-mouth effect, the sky is the limit.
This wasn’t just a good weekend for Weapons. Disney’s $42 million Freakier Friday is already at $50,943,613. The $105 million breakeven is a given at this point.
How about another profitable movie? The $3 million Sketch is already at $5,641,411. Provided it doesn’t have a scenario where the budget was larger, profitability is guaranteed.
I didn’t think we would get to see a week where three profitable new releases dropped on the same day, but here we are.
The Holdovers
I skipped this last week, but let’s at least start by keeping the good news streak going.
Superman is officially profitable. With a global gross of $583,184,195 (And more left in the tank), I see drafters leaving with at least $50 million in profits. Not a breakout in raw profitability, but excellent news for DC’s revitalization.
Fantastic Four: First Steps is probably going to crawl to the $500 million mark. Barely profitable, but not a crash and burn either.
The Naked Gun will likely end up with the same fate (but on a lower budget). Good enough, but not spectacular.
Together seems to be being cannibalized by Weapons. I think this may have a tougher road to the $42.5 million breakeven, but at least the losses would be small.
Jurassic World: Rebirth has passed the $800 million mark. While this feels like a movie that came and went, the $360 million+ profit here is undisputably good.
Next Weekend
The summer heavy hitters have played. The next few weeks will be… quiet. Expect an easy repeat for Weapons and Freakier Friday, and the small (but low budgeted) Nobody 2 debuting.